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Poisson model favours AS Roma (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Empoli face AS Roma.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Empoli have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

AS Roma (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Empoli winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading Data

Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus AS Roma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 37% | AS Roma 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.623 / defence 1.311 | AS Roma attack 0.924 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.231. Empoli's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Empoli games / 65 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Empoli 17% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 52%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 1.92. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 40% | AS Roma 60%.

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