Udinese 1-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Udinese at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Torino travel to Dacia Arena to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Dacia Arena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Torino — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Udinese are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Udinese register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Torino in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for Torino and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Torino in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 60% versus Torino 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 58% | Torino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.94 xG and Torino 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.259 / defence 0.864 | Torino attack 0.983 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.175. Udinese carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Udinese games / 48 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 58% | Draw 25% | Torino 17%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Torino 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 60% | Torino 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 58% | Draw 25% | Torino 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Udinese 1.94 / Torino 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.259 / def 0.864 | Torino attack 0.983 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Udinese (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Torino xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Torino kick off?
Udinese vs Torino kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Torino?
Udinese 1 - 2 Torino.
Where is Udinese vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Torino part of?
Udinese vs Torino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 58% chance of winning, Torino a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Udinese and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Torino 1W.
What form are Udinese and Torino in?
Udinese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Torino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.26x the league average against Torino's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.03
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.94
1.00
Torino xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
40.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Udinese and 1.00 for Torino, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Torino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 17D 14L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (16W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.42 PPG, Torino on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 9W 9D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.12 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Torino in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 17D 14L in their last 48 games (1.42 PPG), while Torino have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Torino away?
Udinese's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.50 PPG; Torino away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Torino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Udinese's record when hosting Torino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Udinese
2
Draws
5
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 3, Torino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 62%, Torino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Udinese) and 33% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Udinese's games and 50% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Udinese's recent games and 33% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Torino tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Torino in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Udinese 1-2 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.94 xG and Torino 1.00 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Udinese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Torino outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.26 / defence 0.86 against Torino attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 58% | Draw 25% | Torino 17%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Torino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 58%, Torino 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.42 PPG, Torino 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.