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Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Cremonese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lazio beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.55 xG and Lazio 1.22 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.62 / defence 1.26 against Lazio attack 0.87 / defence 0.72, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 16% | Draw 31% | Lazio 52%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Lazio 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Lazio's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.25 PPG, Lazio 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights