🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Como 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Como 1-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.82 xG and Fiorentina 0.77 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Como fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Fiorentina outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.19 / defence 0.72 against Fiorentina attack 0.89 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 62% | Draw 23% | Fiorentina 15%, with Como to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Fiorentina win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 43%, Fiorentina 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Como 1.48 PPG, Fiorentina 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights