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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cagliari and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.74 xG and Pisa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 51% | Draw 24% | Pisa 26%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 47%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Pisa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights