Cagliari 2-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Pisa at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 3W 2D 5L at Unipol Domus — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Pisa have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cagliari 0.70 PPG, Pisa 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Pisa 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 47% | Pisa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.74 xG and Pisa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.018 / defence 1.109 | Pisa attack 0.962 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.098. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Cagliari games / 15 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 51% | Draw 24% | Pisa 26%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Pisa 3.85. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Pisa 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 51% | Draw 24% | Pisa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Cagliari 1.74 / Pisa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.018 / def 1.109 | Pisa attack 0.962 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Pisa xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Pisa kick off?
Cagliari vs Pisa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Pisa?
Cagliari 2 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Cagliari vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Pisa part of?
Cagliari vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 51% chance of winning, Pisa a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cagliari and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Pisa in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.23
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.91
1.17
Pisa xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.17 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari's recent record stands at 12W 14D 27L from 53 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 15L across 53 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pisa by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 8W 6D 12L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 8D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.36 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 12W 14D 27L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 15D 15L in their last 53 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.15 PPG; Pisa away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cagliari's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cagliari
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Pisa 3-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 46%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 50% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 35% of games; Pisa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cagliari's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 50% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Pisa tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Pisa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Pisa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Pisa finished level at 2-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.74 xG and Pisa 1.17 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against Pisa attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 51% | Draw 24% | Pisa 26%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 47%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.