🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Atalanta 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Atalanta 3-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.83 xG and Atalanta 1.19 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atalanta outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 0.96 against Atalanta attack 1.10 / defence 0.77, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 26% | Draw 30% | Atalanta 44%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 49%, Atalanta 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Atalanta's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights