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Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat AS Roma 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.94 xG and AS Roma 1.54 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 50%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 47%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

AS Roma's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights