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Poisson model favours AS Roma (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face AS Roma.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Cagliari.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.

It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Cagliari trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

AS Roma trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 47% | AS Roma 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.94 xG and AS Roma 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.013 / defence 1.246 | AS Roma attack 1.094 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.126. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Cagliari games / 51 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 50%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 2.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.

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