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Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Napoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Napoli 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.16 xG and Napoli 0.82 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Napoli landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.17 / defence 0.75 against Napoli attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Napoli 24%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Napoli's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights