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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bologna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Monza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Monza 3-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.47 xG and Monza 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Monza 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Monza's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights