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Poisson rates Bologna at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Monza — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Monza's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Monza and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Bologna trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Monza trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Monza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Monza 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.47 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.048 / defence 0.952 | Monza attack 0.833 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.304. Data: 57 Bologna games / 58 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 4.00. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 60% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.

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