Bologna 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monza — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Monza and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Monza trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 55% versus Monza 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Monza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.73 xG and Monza 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.255 / defence 0.643 | Monza attack 0.927 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.168. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna's defence rating of 0.643 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Bologna games / 69 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 24% | Monza 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 24% | Monza 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Bologna 1.73 / Monza 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.255 / def 0.643 | Monza attack 0.927 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Bologna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Monza xG
42%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 62% chance of winning, Monza a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Monza 1W.
What form are Bologna and Monza in?
Bologna (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Monza (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
0.70
Monza xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
3%
39.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bologna and 0.70 for Monza, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 69 games, going 30W 22D 17L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.36 PPG from 69 outings (25W 19D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.62 PPG, Monza on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 19W 10D 5L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.32 points per game from 34 outings (12W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.19 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 30W 22D 17L in their last 69 games (1.62 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Bologna's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.97 PPG; Monza away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Monza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Monza 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 44% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Monza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 41% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 44% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Monza tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Monza in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Monza finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Monza 0.70 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.25 / defence 0.64 against Monza attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 62% | Draw 24% | Monza 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Monza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Monza's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.62 PPG, Monza 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.