Udinese 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Udinese face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Bluenergy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 25 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Udinese's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Udinese, 3 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 54% versus AS Roma 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 46% | AS Roma 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.08 xG and AS Roma 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.880 / defence 1.121 | AS Roma attack 1.119 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.211. Data: 70 Udinese games / 70 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 27% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 47%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.13. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 27% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Udinese 1.08 / AS Roma 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.880 / def 1.121 | AS Roma attack 1.119 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.52
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 25 April 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Udinese 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 27% chance of winning, AS Roma a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Record (5 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
27%
3.73
26%
3.84
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.60
1.52
AS Roma xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
6%
17.04
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Udinese and 1.52 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 70 games, going 15W 29D 26L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.69 PPG from 70 outings (34W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 7W 17D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.35 points per game from 34 outings (12W 10D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.53 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 29D 26L in their last 70 games (1.06 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 34W 16D 20L in their last 70 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.12 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Udinese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 65%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Udinese) and 53% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Udinese's games and 62% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Udinese's recent games and 53% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.08 xG and AS Roma 1.52 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 27% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 47%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 46%, AS Roma 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.