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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Genoa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Genoa 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.24 xG and Genoa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against Genoa attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 43% | Draw 29% | Genoa 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 49%, Genoa 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights