🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bologna at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bologna host Genoa at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.

Genoa — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Genoa's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 0.80 PPG versus Genoa's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Genoa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Bologna have won 1, Genoa 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–3 with Genoa winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Genoa in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Genoa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Genoa 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.24 xG and Genoa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.081 / defence 0.892 | Genoa attack 1.006 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.062. Data: 41 Bologna games / 41 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 43% | Draw 29% | Genoa 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 60% | Genoa 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights