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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Genoa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Bologna 1-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.59 xG and Genoa 0.75 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.36 / defence 0.83 against Genoa attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 57% | Draw 27% | Genoa 17%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights