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Poisson rates Bologna at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Genoa encounter.

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Match Analysis

Bologna host Genoa at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.

Genoa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Genoa's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Bologna have won 1, Genoa 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).

Genoa in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 51% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Genoa 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.59 xG and Genoa 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.357 / defence 0.834 | Genoa attack 0.789 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.133. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 75 Bologna games / 75 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 57% | Draw 27% | Genoa 17%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 70% | Genoa 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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