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Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Bologna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Bologna 1-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.41 xG and Fiorentina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Fiorentina 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Fiorentina's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.59 PPG, Fiorentina 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights