Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fiorentina have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bologna against 1.00 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Bologna, 4 for Fiorentina and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 55% versus Fiorentina 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Fiorentina 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.41 xG and Fiorentina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.919 / defence 1.012 | Fiorentina attack 0.851 / defence 1.312. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.147. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.312 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Bologna games / 58 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Bologna 1.41 / Fiorentina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.919 / def 1.012 | Fiorentina attack 0.851 / def 1.312 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Fiorentina xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Fiorentina kick off?
Bologna vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Bologna 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Bologna vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Fiorentina part of?
Bologna vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 47% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 4W.
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.92x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.85x) against Bologna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.72
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.40
0.99
Fiorentina xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
6%
15.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bologna and 0.99 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 24W 20D 14L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 21W 16D 21L from 58 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Bologna against 1.36 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.82 PPG from 28 outings (14W 9D 5L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 7W 8D 13L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.40 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 20D 14L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Fiorentina away?
Bologna's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.82 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bologna or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fiorentina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 54%, Fiorentina 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 57% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bologna's recent matches and 54% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 57% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Bologna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Bologna 1-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.41 xG and Fiorentina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Fiorentina 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.59 PPG, Fiorentina 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.