Bologna 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Empoli travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bologna are significantly better at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Bologna) versus 0.80 (Empoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bologna, 1 for Empoli and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Empoli 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Empoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.40 xG and Empoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.994 / defence 1.020 | Empoli attack 0.922 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.100. Data: 44 Bologna games / 44 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Empoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Empoli 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 70% | Empoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Empoli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.40 / Empoli 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.994 / def 1.020 | Empoli attack 0.922 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Bologna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Empoli kick off?
Bologna vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Bologna 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Bologna vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Empoli part of?
Bologna vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 42% chance of winning, Empoli a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Bologna and Empoli in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.99x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
42%
2.40
34%
2.94
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
Empoli xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Bologna and 1.03 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 13W 13D 18L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli's form line: 10W 15D 19L from 44 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.18 PPG, Empoli on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 6W 8D 8L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Empoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 15D 19L in their last 44 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Empoli away?
Bologna's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.50 PPG; Empoli away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Empoli have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bologna) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 27% of games; Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bologna's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Empoli tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Empoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.40 xG and Empoli 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Empoli attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 42% | Draw 34% | Empoli 24%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Empoli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Empoli's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.18 PPG, Empoli 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.