Juventus 3-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Stadium plays host to Juventus versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juventus have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 5W 4D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Juventus are significantly better at Allianz Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bologna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Juventus, 0.90 for Bologna — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Juventus, 0 for Bologna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Juventus half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 53% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.60 xG and Bologna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.114 / defence 0.900 | Bologna attack 0.953 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.142. Data: 45 Juventus games / 45 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 50% | Draw 29% | Bologna 21%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Bologna 4.76. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventus if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Juventus 50% | Bologna 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 50% | Draw 29% | Bologna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Juventus 1.60 / Bologna 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.114 / def 0.900 | Bologna attack 0.953 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Juventus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Bologna kick off?
Juventus vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Juventus 3 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Juventus vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Bologna part of?
Juventus vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 50% chance of winning, Bologna a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juventus and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
Record (2 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 1 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Juventus and Bologna in?
Juventus (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.95x) against Juventus's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
50%
2.00
29%
3.47
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Juventus xG
Total xG
2.58
0.98
Bologna xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
4%
23.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Juventus and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Juventus and 0.98 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Juventus come into this having played 45 games, going 22W 14D 9L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.16 PPG from 45 outings (13W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Juventus's home form reads 12W 7D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (4W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventus are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.13 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Bologna in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 22W 14D 9L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Bologna have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Bologna away?
Juventus's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.95 PPG; Bologna away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Juventus or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bologna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventus have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
6
Draws
0
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Bologna have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Bologna?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 46%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Juventus) and 54% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Juventus's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Juventus's recent games and 54% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Bologna tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Bologna in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Juventus run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Bologna 3-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.60 xG and Bologna 0.98 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Juventus beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Bologna attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 50% | Draw 29% | Bologna 21%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.