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Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Bologna 1-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.57 xG and Cremonese 0.65 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.19 / defence 0.67 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 58% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 14%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Cremonese 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Cremonese's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.72 PPG, Cremonese 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights