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Poisson rates Bologna at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Cremonese encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Bologna and Cremonese meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.

Cremonese have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie A this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 2.10 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 5–1 with Bologna winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bologna — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Cremonese — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bologna 52% and Cremonese 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Cremonese 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.57 xG and Cremonese 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.192 / defence 0.672 | Cremonese attack 0.863 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.126. Bologna's defence rating of 0.672 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Bologna games / 12 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 58% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 14%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (58%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Cremonese 70%.

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