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Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Bologna 0-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.31 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Bologna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Atalanta outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Atalanta attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 44% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Atalanta 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Atalanta's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.60 PPG, Atalanta 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights