🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bologna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Atalanta travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 7 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Atalanta — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.30 PPG, Atalanta 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Bologna have won 3, Atalanta 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Atalanta winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Bologna trading profile (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Atalanta trading profile (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Atalanta 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Atalanta 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.31 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.044 / defence 0.900 | Atalanta attack 0.952 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.142. Data: 55 Bologna games / 56 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 28% | Atalanta 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Atalanta 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Atalanta 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights