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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bologna and AS Roma share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 20, as Bologna and AS Roma drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.60 xG and AS Roma 0.84 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against AS Roma attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, AS Roma 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.75 PPG, AS Roma 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights