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Poisson model favours Bologna (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face AS Roma.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Bologna welcome AS Roma to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Bologna — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 3W 6D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.

Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bologna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bologna: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for AS Roma, with 2 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Bologna winning.

The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Bologna in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

AS Roma in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 47% versus AS Roma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | AS Roma 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.60 xG and AS Roma 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.033 / defence 0.847 | AS Roma attack 0.765 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.302. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Bologna games / 57 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 18%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 5.56. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 60% | AS Roma 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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