Spezia 0-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 25 as Spezia welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Spezia) versus 1.20 (Hellas Verona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Spezia have won 1, Hellas Verona 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Spezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Spezia trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hellas Verona trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Spezia 53% and Hellas Verona 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 58% | Hellas Verona 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.00 xG and Hellas Verona 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.780 / defence 1.256 | Hellas Verona attack 0.761 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.162. Spezia's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Spezia games / 62 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 38%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Hellas Verona 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 60% | Hellas Verona 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 32% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Spezia 1.00 / Hellas Verona 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.780 / def 1.256 | Hellas Verona attack 0.761 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Spezia vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Spezia 0 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Spezia vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Hellas Verona part of?
Spezia vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 32% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Spezia and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 2W.
What form are Spezia and Hellas Verona in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.78) and Hellas Verona's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
32%
3.09
30%
3.36
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.11
1.11
Hellas Verona xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
14%
7.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Spezia and 1.11 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Spezia's recent record stands at 14W 14D 34L from 62 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 28L across 62 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.90 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 7W 9D 14L from 30 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 5W 12D 13L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Spezia are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.37 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 68%.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 14W 14D 34L in their last 62 games (0.90 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Hellas Verona away?
Spezia's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Spezia and Hellas Verona runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Hellas Verona won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
From 5 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Spezia 1-3 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spezia at 60%, Hellas Verona at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Spezia) and 43% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Spezia's games and 70% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Spezia's recent games and 43% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia and Hellas Verona finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.00 xG and Hellas Verona 1.11 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spezia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hellas Verona landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.78 / defence 1.26 against Hellas Verona attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 32% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 38%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 58%, Hellas Verona 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.90 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.