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Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Atalanta 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Atalanta 0-1 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.27 xG and Bologna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 0.79 against Bologna attack 1.21 / defence 1.04, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 40% | Draw 29% | Bologna 31%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 47%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Bologna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.78 PPG, Bologna 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights