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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Bologna 2-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Bologna attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 61%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.84 PPG, Bologna 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights