Atalanta 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 35%, yet in-form Bologna provide a compelling counter-argument — this Atalanta vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Bologna at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 2, Bologna 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Bologna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 61% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.942 / defence 0.989 | Bologna attack 0.992 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.176. Data: 69 Atalanta games / 69 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Bologna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bologna (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 60% | Bologna 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Atalanta 1.18 / Bologna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.942 / def 0.989 | Bologna attack 0.992 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Bologna xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Bologna kick off?
Atalanta vs Bologna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 2 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Atalanta vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Bologna part of?
Atalanta vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atalanta and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
Record (6 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 3W.
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (0.94) and Bologna's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.34
1.15
Bologna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.15 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 38W 13D 18L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 33W 26D 10L from 69 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.84 PPG, Bologna on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.94 PPG from 34 outings (20W 6D 8L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 12W 15D 7L from 34 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.52 scored and 0.97 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Bologna's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 38W 13D 18L in their last 69 games (1.84 PPG), while Bologna have gone 33W 26D 10L in their last 69 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Bologna away?
Atalanta's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.94 PPG; Bologna away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Atalanta
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Bologna?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 56%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Atalanta) and 53% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atalanta's games and 56% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Atalanta's matches and 53% of Bologna's.
Do Atalanta and Bologna tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Bologna 2-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.18 xG and Bologna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Bologna attack 0.99 / defence 0.99, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 35% | Draw 31% | Bologna 34%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 61%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.84 PPG, Bologna 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.