AS Roma 3-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 77% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Pisa meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
AS Roma's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pisa (all games): 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Pisa away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in AS Roma's favour (1.20 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, AS Roma edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended AS Roma 1–0 Pisa — a AS Roma win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 38% | Pisa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.52 xG and Pisa 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.234 / defence 0.764 | Pisa attack 0.760 / defence 1.620. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.173. Pisa's defence rating of 1.620 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Pisa's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Pisa's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 69 games and Pisa's last 31.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.29 | Draw 6.82 | Pisa 12.63. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (77%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 77% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 30% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG AS Roma 2.52 / Pisa 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.234 / def 0.764 | Pisa attack 0.760 / def 1.620 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Pisa xG
45%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Pisa FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Pisa kick off?
AS Roma vs Pisa kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Pisa?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Pisa.
Where is AS Roma vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Pisa part of?
AS Roma vs Pisa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 77% chance of winning, Pisa a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AS Roma and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will AS Roma vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.23x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.76x) against AS Roma's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 69 games and Pisa's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
77%
1.29
15%
6.82
8%
12.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.21
0.68
Pisa xG
1.29
77%
Home win
6.82
15%
Draw
12.63
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
8%
12.48
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
1%
157.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.68 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Pisa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma come into this having played 69 games, going 37W 12D 20L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.33 PPG from 69 outings (24W 20D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AS Roma's home form reads 23W 4D 7L across their last 34 home games, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 34 away games (9W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.23 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Pisa in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 37W 12D 20L in their last 69 games (1.78 PPG), while Pisa have gone 24W 20D 25L in their last 69 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Pisa away?
AS Roma's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.15 PPG; Pisa away: 1.15 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Pisa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Pisa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: AS Roma 3-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Pisa?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Pisa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 53% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Pisa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 53% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of AS Roma's recent matches and 76% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Pisa 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.52 xG and Pisa 0.68 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.76 against Pisa attack 0.76 / defence 1.62, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 77% | Draw 15% | Pisa 8%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 77%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 38%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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