AS Roma 1-0 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AS Roma face Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Lecce in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lecce (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Lecce's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward AS Roma. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lecce (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, AS Roma have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Lecce managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Jan 2026, ended AS Roma 2–0 Lecce — a AS Roma win.
The head-to-head data gives AS Roma an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Lecce — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Lecce 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 37% | Lecce 39%). Note also that Lecce surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while AS Roma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.66 xG and Lecce 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.294 / defence 0.785 | Lecce attack 0.803 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.196. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.294 — their 1.66 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling Lecce's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 67 games and Lecce's last 67.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 24% | Lecce 17%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.69 | Draw 4.14 | Lecce 5.96. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 40% (last 10 home games) | Lecce 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 24% | Lecce 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG AS Roma 1.66 / Lecce 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.294 / def 0.785 | Lecce attack 0.803 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Lecce xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Lecce kick off?
AS Roma vs Lecce kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Lecce.
Where is AS Roma vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lecce part of?
AS Roma vs Lecce is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 59% chance of winning, Lecce a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AS Roma and Lecce will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will AS Roma vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.29) and Lecce's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.80x) against AS Roma's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 67 games and Lecce's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
59%
1.69
24%
4.14
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.41
0.75
Lecce xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
31.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.75 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 67 games, going 36W 12D 19L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.91 PPG from 67 outings (15W 16D 36L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 22W 4D 7L across their last 33 home games, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 33 away games (7W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.72 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Lecce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Lecce
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 36W 12D 19L in their last 67 games (1.79 PPG), while Lecce have gone 15W 16D 36L in their last 67 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lecce away?
AS Roma's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.12 PPG; Lecce away: 0.82 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Lecce in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between AS Roma and Lecce, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won Lecce 0-4 AS Roma on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 7, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lecce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lecce?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Lecce 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AS Roma) and 33% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lecce in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Lecce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Lecce matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 39% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Lecce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AS Roma's recent games and 33% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Lecce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of AS Roma's recent matches and 64% of Lecce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lecce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.66 xG and Lecce 0.75 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.29 / defence 0.79 against Lecce attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 59% | Draw 24% | Lecce 17%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 37%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lecce's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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