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Shock result as Inter defy the odds to beat AS Roma 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.23 xG and Inter 1.18 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Inter attack 1.37 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 36% | Draw 31% | Inter 33%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 36%, Inter 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Inter's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.91 PPG, Inter 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights