AS Roma 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 8W 1D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.40 PPG for AS Roma against 2.20 for Inter. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AS Roma have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Inter in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Inter, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Inter goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 43% versus Inter 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 36% | Inter 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.23 xG and Inter 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.989 / defence 0.785 | Inter attack 1.370 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.092. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 AS Roma games / 44 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 36% | Draw 31% | Inter 33%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Inter 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 30% | Inter 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 36% | Draw 31% | Inter 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG AS Roma 1.23 / Inter 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.989 / def 0.785 | Inter attack 1.370 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Inter xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Inter kick off?
AS Roma vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is AS Roma vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Inter part of?
AS Roma vs Inter is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 36% chance of winning, Inter a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Inter 6W.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.99) and Inter's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.37x) against AS Roma's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
36%
2.78
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.40
1.18
Inter xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.18 for Inter, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 25W 9D 10L from 44 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 7L across 44 games — 2.11 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.91 PPG for AS Roma against 2.11 for Inter. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 15W 2D 4L from 21 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 12W 5D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.18 scored and 0.98 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into AS Roma's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Inter in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Inter in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while Inter have gone 28W 9D 7L in their last 44 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Inter away?
AS Roma's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.24 PPG; Inter away: 1.95 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Inter in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Inter 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AS Roma) and 48% (Inter).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Inter in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 33% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AS Roma's recent games and 48% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Inter tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Inter in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Inter defy the odds to beat AS Roma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.23 xG and Inter 1.18 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.79 against Inter attack 1.37 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 36% | Draw 31% | Inter 33%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 36%, Inter 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.91 PPG, Inter 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.