AS Roma vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours AS Roma (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in AS Roma's favour (2.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — AS Roma have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Genoa in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for AS Roma, 2 for Genoa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Genoa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Genoa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.60 xG and Genoa 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.453 / defence 0.739 | Genoa attack 0.757 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 40 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Genoa 16%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 6.25. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 59% | Draw 25% | Genoa 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG AS Roma 1.60 / Genoa 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.453 / def 0.739 | Genoa attack 0.757 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Genoa xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Genoa kick off?
AS Roma vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Genoa part of?
AS Roma vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 59% chance of winning, Genoa a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AS Roma and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 4W | Draws 2 | Genoa 2W.
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.45x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.76x) against AS Roma's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.04
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.29
0.69
Genoa xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
3%
31.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.69 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 4D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa's form line: 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Genoa in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Genoa away?
AS Roma's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.25 PPG; Genoa away: 0.95 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Genoa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Genoa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Genoa?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 25%, Genoa 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AS Roma) and 45% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Genoa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 55% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AS Roma's recent games and 45% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Genoa tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.