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Poisson model rates Inter at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Bologna host Inter at in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Bologna at this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.

Inter — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Inter away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.70 PPG, Inter 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bologna, 3 for Inter and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Standings Snapshot

Bologna hold the table advantage, sitting 2nd with 0 points — 6 positions and 0 points clear of Inter in 8th.

At home this season, Bologna have gone 0W 0D 0L. Inter have gone 0W 0D 0L on their travels. Bologna: Champions League league stage.

In-Play Profile

Bologna in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Inter in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 45% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 45% | Inter 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.14 xG and Inter 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.912 / defence 1.063 | Inter attack 1.329 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.178. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Bologna games / 38 Inter games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 24% | Inter 50%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Inter 2.00. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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