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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Genoa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Genoa 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.33 xG and Genoa 0.95 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.94 / defence 0.72 against Genoa attack 1.19 / defence 1.17, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 45% | Draw 28% | Genoa 27%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Genoa 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights