🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates AS Roma at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Genoa encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Monday 29 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

AS Roma (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.

AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.

Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Genoa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for AS Roma, 1.20 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Genoa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 3–1 with AS Roma winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 41% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 35% | Genoa 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.33 xG and Genoa 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.943 / defence 0.718 | Genoa attack 1.190 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.115. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 AS Roma games / 54 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: AS Roma 45% | Draw 28% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 3.70. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 20% | Genoa 90%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights