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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.73 xG and Fiorentina 0.91 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.24 / defence 0.78 against Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 56% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 38%, Fiorentina 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fiorentina's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.81 PPG, Fiorentina 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights