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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 35

Kick-off

Mon 4 May 2026

19:45

Venue

Stadio Olimpico

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

AS Roma Win

56%

AS Roma

1.78

25%

Draw

4.06

19%

Fiorentina

5.22

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.2%

Draw

2 – 0

10.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.73

AS Roma xG

Total xG

2.65

0.91

Fiorentina xG

56%
25%
19%
AS RomaDrawFiorentina

1.78

56%

Home win

4.06

25%

Draw

5.22

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.01

50%

BTTS No

1.99

Clean Sheet

40%

AS Roma

2.49

18%

Fiorentina

5.66

Win to Nil

23%

AS Roma

4.43

3%

Fiorentina

29.59

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.1 6.5 3.0 0.9 0.2
1 12.3 11.2 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1
2 10.7 9.7 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 6.2 5.6 2.6 0.8 0.2
4 2.7 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.734
λ Away (xG) 0.913
Total xG 2.647
League avg home goals 1.238
League avg away goals 1.111
AS Roma attack strength 1.237
AS Roma defence strength 0.779
Fiorentina attack strength 1.056
Fiorentina defence strength 1.132
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 72 / 72