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Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cremonese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Cremonese 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.62 xG and Cremonese 0.48 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 0.63 against Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 33%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cremonese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights