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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Cagliari 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.56 xG and Cagliari 0.76 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.67 against Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 56% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 33%, Cagliari 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cagliari's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights