Waterford 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 36%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waterford vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 1). Kick-off is Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waterford — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Waterford's last 10 home games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Shelbourne have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Waterford.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Waterford 1–2 Shelbourne — a Shelbourne win.
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shelbourne in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 54% versus Shelbourne 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | Shelbourne 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.24 xG and Shelbourne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.982 / defence 1.089 | Shelbourne attack 1.104 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.022. Data: built from Waterford's last 36 games and Shelbourne's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waterford 36% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 35%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.79 | Draw 3.47 | Shelbourne 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waterford at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waterford 70% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Waterford 36 games, Shelbourne 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 1 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 6 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 36% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Waterford 1.24 / Shelbourne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.982 / def 1.089 | Shelbourne attack 1.104 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Waterford (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Shelbourne xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 6 February 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 1) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 36% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 36 games and Shelbourne's last 36, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.47
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.47
1.23
Shelbourne xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Waterford and 1.23 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 72 games, going 25W 11D 36L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.69 PPG from 72 outings (32W 26D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 13W 6D 16L across their last 35 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.66 points per game from their last 35 away games (15W 13D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.22 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.29 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Waterford or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Waterford have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Shelbourne 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Shelbourne 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 31% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 34%; Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Shelbourne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waterford's games and 51% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Waterford's recent games and 31% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Waterford's recent matches and 69% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and Shelbourne finished level at 1-1 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.24 xG and Shelbourne 1.23 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Shelbourne attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 36% | Draw 29% | Shelbourne 35%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, Shelbourne 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.