UCD 1-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates UCD at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as UCD face Cork City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
UCD welcome Cork City to UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 10). Kick-off is Friday 14 April 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, UCD have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, UCD have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for UCD, 1 for Cork City and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2023, ended UCD 0–4 Cork City — a Cork City win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.58 xG and Cork City 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.754 / defence 1.249 | Cork City attack 1.034 / defence 1.629. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.165. UCD's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.58. Cork City's defence rating of 1.629 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. UCD's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cork City's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 45 games and Cork City's last 9.
Result probabilities: UCD 40% | Draw 24% | Cork City 36%. Fair-value odds: UCD 2.52 | Draw 4.19 | Cork City 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.58 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is UCD at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on UCD offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 10 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 14 April 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 40% | Draw 24% | Cork City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG UCD 1.58 / Cork City 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.754 / def 1.249 | Cork City attack 1.034 / def 1.629 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: UCD (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Cork City xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ UCD vs Cork City FAQs
What time does UCD vs Cork City kick off?
UCD vs Cork City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 14 April 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Cork City?
UCD 1 - 0 Cork City.
Where is UCD vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Cork City part of?
UCD vs Cork City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 10) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 40% chance of winning, Cork City a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making UCD the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both UCD and Cork City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will UCD vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
UCD's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from UCD's last 45 games and Cork City's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
UCD Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.19
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
UCD xG
Total xG
3.09
1.50
Cork City xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ UCD vs Cork City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are UCD and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for UCD and 1.50 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Cork City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Pre-Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
UCD (Home) vs Cork City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
UCD
Pre-Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2023. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 22 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Mar 2023, when Cork City won Cork City 4-0 UCD.
UCD's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
UCD
1
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ UCD vs Cork City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Cork City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, UCD have won 1, Cork City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did UCD and Cork City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 October 2023: UCD 0-2 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Cork City?
Cork City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as UCD edge out Cork City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD beat Cork City 1-0 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.58 xG and Cork City 1.50 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cork City landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Cork City attack 1.03 / defence 1.63, drawn from 45/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 40% | Draw 24% | Cork City 36%, with UCD to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.