Dundalk 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 16 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Derry City away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.03 xG and Derry City 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.154 / defence 1.175 | Derry City attack 1.245 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.179. Derry City's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Dundalk games / 45 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 22% | Draw 24% | Derry City 54%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Derry City 1.85. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 40% | Derry City 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 22% | Draw 24% | Derry City 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Dundalk 1.03 / Derry City 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.154 / def 1.175 | Derry City attack 1.245 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Derry City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Derry City xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 22% chance of winning, Derry City a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.15) and Derry City's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.25x) against Dundalk's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
22%
4.45
24%
4.20
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.75
1.73
Derry City xG
4.45
22%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
24.96
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.73 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 30W 21D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 32W 24D 16L from 72 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Dundalk against 1.67 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.94 PPG from 36 outings (21W 7D 8L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 18W 9D 9L from 36 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.42 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 44% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 56% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Derry City finished level at 2-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.03 xG and Derry City 1.73 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against Derry City attack 1.25 / defence 0.69, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 22% | Draw 24% | Derry City 54%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.54 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.