Bohemians 2-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 64% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.93 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.136 / defence 1.096 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.159 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.165. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians games / 45 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 22% | St Patrick's Athl. 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.33. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 48% | Draw 22% | St Patrick's Athl. 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Bohemians 1.93 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.136 / def 1.096 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.159 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.48
St Patrick's Athl. xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 2 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 48% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
48%
2.07
22%
4.54
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.41
1.48
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
4%
23.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.48 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 36W 15D 21L across 72 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.36 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 16W 9D 11L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 14W 10D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.57 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Bohemians's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.58 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 64%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bohemians) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bohemians's games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Bohemians's matches and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Bohemians 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 2-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.93 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.48 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.16 / defence 1.32, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 48% | Draw 22% | St Patrick's Athl. 30%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.36 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.