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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 10, as St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.22 / defence 0.80 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 24%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shamrock Rovers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights