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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Shamrock Rovers and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Shamrock Rovers winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 49% versus Shamrock Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.32 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.218 / defence 0.803 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.996 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.081. Data: 45 St Patrick's Athl. games / 45 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 30% | Shamrock Rovers 24%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Shamrock Rovers 4.17. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Shamrock Rovers 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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